Britain is about to tax wealth, not work. But it’s also about to buy a lot more care.

The new(ish) UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has, at his first conference as PM, now set out his stall on the future direction of the country under his watch. Because of my UK Government background, I’ve been inundated with questions from clients (and friends!) about what this will mean for businesses here in the Gulf - and beyond. Some are worried about their exposure to the UK; others want to know where the opportunities are hiding behind the headlines.

My summary? It’s abundantly clear that the UK is becoming a much harder place to hold wealth, and businesses need to act accordingly. But conversely, it’s becoming a progressively more attractive market to hold and deliver care.

What’s changing

The warning signals from the wider UK economy have been sounding for some time, and have crystallised recently. The 10-year gilt hit 5.43% last month, 0.72 points higher than a year ago. The 30-year reached a level not seen since early 1998. Those yields have essentially halved the new Chancellor’s fiscal headroom (on one City estimate) before he’s even had the chance to deliver his first budget. Couple this with a deficit on track to exceed 4% of GDP for a seventh consecutive year and interest rate hikes largely inevitable, and the picture isn’t exactly rosy.

What does this mean for those businesses exposed or invested in the UK? Well, it’s the likely UK government reaction to those circumstances which will bite hard. Brutally speaking, the UK Treasury has to raise money, and the PM has promised to “stick to our fiscal rules”. With manifesto locks in place preventing that money coming from income tax, NI or VAT, the only place left is wealth: namely assets, land, capital gains or sector levies.

The new PM isn’t denying this; his Government is leaning into it. Senior Ministers have backed moving capital gains towards income tax rates, which one estimate suggests would raise £14bn, and the Chancellor pointedly noted at conference how low Britain’s rates are. A levy on banks, and on other sectors, is widely seen as next in line.

The savvy watchers have spotted this and are acting accordingly. I’ve spoken to a number of GCC-based investors and family offices who are aiming to tie up UK disposals, exits or refinancing before 28th October (the October 2024 CGT rise took effect on Budget day itself). Others are looking to redeploy their capital to areas which have more political cover and carry less risk.

Where is the money going?

While it’s true that a hefty chunk of the money being taken from wealth will simply fill the fiscal black hole, the PM has found new money from proposed changes to the long-standing triple lock on pensioners. And look at what he’s promising to buy.

A government promising universal care is therefore just promising to buy far more of it. It’s essentially a demand guarantee underwritten by the Treasury.

Burnham has announced that he is committed to delivering a tax-funded, NHS-style care service for England, which will be a central pillar for his manifesto at the next election. The aim is that the combined weight of the changes to the triple lock combined with the push to tax wealth more will together fix the deficit and build this new National Care Service.

But surely there’s limited commercial opportunity in an expanded publicly funded care system? Quite the opposite. Government - either local or national - rarely delivers social care in the UK. Independent providers run roughly 85% of England’s care beds. The PM knows this and it’s part of his wider formula: “Where private companies serve the public interest, we will support them.” Furthermore, those very providers are already well placed to scale more rapidly than the public sector ever could. A government promising universal care is therefore just promising to buy far more of it: it’s essentially a demand guarantee underwritten by the Treasury.

This direction of travel isn’t really anything new - but the scale of it is. I’ve seen this first hand: as leader of local and regional government for the UK, sitting over the entire system; running a large city region that procured its own social care; and advising companies in the sector since. This change in scale will likely have knock-on effects, such as consolidating the market and driving demand to larger operators who can navigate what will be a more regionally-commissioned procurement system. But it will also invariably encourage new entrants and investors into the sector. UK healthcare investment passed £12bn in 2025, a record and roughly four times the five-year average. Sub-sectors such as care homes are already seeing levels of growth that lie in stark contrast to other parts of the wider economy. Home care providers and workforce operators are likely next. Where there’s existing growth and political direction, there’s opportunity.

For those operating from the Gulf, the opportunities are clear if you know how to navigate them. The government are going after the highly leveraged private equity playbook that has dominated the sector. The Prime Minister’s test is whether you “serve the public interest”, and modest leverage and a long hold is how you pass it. That’s the natural shape of Gulf family offices and sovereign capital. Some may try to simply buy their way in, but the clever path is more nuanced: go to the mayors (much of this is being devolved to them), partner with local authorities, charities and UK-based operators, and know the procurement landscape back to front.

It’s what I advise on, both with companies and governments, and what I spent 15 years doing, on the ground, both from without and within. Burnham has been clear on the stick and the carrot: for companies that don’t serve the public interest, “the consequences will be clear”.

The UK isn’t closing to capital: it is simply choosing which capital it wants. Wealth that sits still is about to pay more. Capital that goes to work in care is about to find a customer with the Treasury behind it.

Sources

Andy Burnham, speech to Labour Party Conference, Liverpool, 29 September 2026 (via LabourList). Politics.co.uk, Burnham to change pension triple lock from 2030 to fund National Care Service, September 2026. Trading Economics, UK 10-year gilt yield, 28 September 2026. Options Trading Report, UK gilts near 6%, 8 September 2026. Tech Times, Bond market has already halved Healey’s fiscal room (Pantheon Macroeconomics estimate), 7 September 2026. City A.M., Burnham hints at tax rises in Autumn Budget (Capital Economics deficit analysis), 25 August 2026. City A.M., Which taxes will Burnham and Healey hike? (Centre for the Analysis of Taxation estimate), August 2026. GB News, Healey stokes capital gains tax speculation, 28 September 2026. Flint Global, Burnham bets on social care: implications for operators and investors, August 2026. Savills, UK Healthcare Roundup and 2026 Outlook. Christie & Co via The Carer, Over half of operators plan to acquire another care home, September 2026.